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Global Integration of Central and Eastern European Financial Markets \u2013 The Role of Economic Sentiments

机译:中欧和东欧金融市场的全球整合\ u2013经济情绪的作用

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摘要

This paper examines the importance of different economic sentiments, e.g. consumer moods, for the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) during the transition process. We first analyze the importance of economic confidence with respect to the CEECs' fi nancial markets. Since the integration of formerly strongly-regulated markets into global markets can also lead to an increase in the dependence of the CEECs' domestic market performance on global sentiments, we also investigate the relationship between global economic sentiments and domestic income and share prices. Finally, we test whether the impact of global sentiments and stock prices on domestic variables increases proportionally with the degree of integration. We also account for eff ects stemming from global income. For these purposes, we apply a restricted cointegrating VAR (CVAR) framework based upon a restricted autoregressive model which allows us to distinguish between the long-run and the short-run dynamics. For the long run we find evidence supporting relationships between sentiments, income and share prices in the case of the Czech Republic. Our results for the short run suggest that economic sentiments in general are influenced by share prices but also off er some predictive power with respect to the latter. What is more, European sentiments play an important role in particular for the CEECs' share prices and income. The significance of this link increases with economic integration.
机译:本文探讨了不同经济情绪的重要性,例如过渡过程中中欧和东欧国家(CEEC)的消费者情绪。我们首先分析对CEEC的金融市场而言,经济信心的重要性。由于将以前受到严格监管的市场整合到全球市场中也可能导致CEEC国内市场绩效对全球情绪的依赖性增加,因此我们还研究了全球经济情绪与国内收入和股价之间的关系。最后,我们测试了全球情绪和股票价格对国内变量的影响是否随整合程度成比例地增加。我们还考虑了来自全球收入的影响。为此,我们基于受限的自回归模型应用受限的协整VAR(CVAR)框架,该模型使我们能够区分长期动态和短期动态。从长远来看,在捷克共和国,我们发现支持情绪,收入和股价之间关系的证据。我们的短期结果表明,总体而言,经济情绪受股价影响,但对股价也具有一定的预测能力。此外,欧洲情绪尤其对中东欧国家的股价和收入起着重要作用。随着经济一体化,这一联系的重要性也越来越高。

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